Allawi leads Maliki for first time in Iraq count

Reuters

NUMBER 1? Secular alliance leader Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister and secular Shiite, shows an inked finger after voting in the Iraqi parliamentary election.

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Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi edged past Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Tuesday in results from Iraq's fragmented March 7 vote that may lead to months of political bargaining and create a risky power vacuum.

The development was a reversal of results so far which had shown Maliki in the lead and was announced on a day when twin bomb attacks in the town of Mussayab, 60 km south of the capital, killed eight people.

The bombs went off within minutes of one another after attackers attached two bombs to passengers cars, underscoring Iraq's vulnerability as it confronts the possibility of major political change and US troops prepare to withdraw.

The blasts, a day after seven people were killed by a car bomb in western Anbar province, raised doubts about how Iraq's fragile security will stand up during what likely will be long, divisive talks among leading politicians to form a government.

Allawi's narrow lead in the national vote count over Maliki's mainly Shi'ite State of Law bloc, which is ahead in seven of 18 provinces but has barely made a dent in Sunni areas, was somewhat of a surprise and underlines Iraq's polarisation after years of sectarian war.

Allawi, a secular Shi'ite whose cross-sectarian, secularist Iraqiya list is now ahead in five provinces, has galvanised support among minority Sunnis eager to reclaim the influence they lost when Saddam Hussein's long rule ended in 2003.

With about 80 percent of an estimated 12 million votes counted, only about 9000 votes separate Maliki's and Allawi's coalitions. Definitive results could take weeks.

One or the other bloc is likely to ally with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a largely Shi'ite bloc made up of Maliki's estranged allies, running third, or with a partnership of Kurdish parties which dominated Iraq's Kurdish north.

CONFIDENT

While Maliki, who has built his reputation on pulling Iraq back from the brink of civil war, has wide support, Allawi, an urbane physician and critic of the mainly Shi'ite religious parties dominating Iraq since 2003, and his allies were feeling confident.

Thaer al-Naqeeb, a close aide to Allawi, said even before his candidate pulled ahead that a government without Iraqiya representation would be "difficult".

"Our expectations are that we will be the ones to form the government. In the north we are No. 1 and we are in a good position in Baghdad ... If the Iraqi people demand change and are waiting for a change, then there should be change."

How Iraq forms a government agreeable to Maliki, Allawi and diverse factions will be key to maintaining security as Washington looks towards an end-2011 deadline for withdrawal.

An alliance of the country's two main Kurdish parties has the lead in three Kurdish provinces in northern Iraq. It trails close behind Allawi's bloc in Kirkuk, the oil-producing province at the heart of a bitter struggle between Arabs and Kurds.

Allawi leads the Kurdish bloc by a handful of votes.

Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the University of London, said influence from Iraq's fellow Shi'ite-majority neighbour Iran could be instrumental in producing another government alliance between Maliki, the INA and the Kurds.

"To some extent this would be a reconstitution of the collation that governed Iraq so ineptly from 2006 to 2010," he said.

The Iranian government, eager to see someone representing Shi'ite interests leading Iraq, praised the elections.

"All international supervision has confirmed the soundness of the Iraqi elections. This is a success and we congratulate Iraqis," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said.

- Reuters