Swine flu: worst case scenario

The worst-case scenario of swine flu could cause up to 51,500 deaths in New Zealand and an economic contraction of 18 percent, an Australian think-tank has projected.

A "mild" pandemic, on the scale of the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu, could cause 500 deaths and cause the economy to contract 1.4 percent, a paper by the Lowy Institute, originally published in 2006, said.

Eleven New Zealanders were being treated for the disease, with three of those cases confirmed last night as swine flu.

More than 40 people were in isolation awaiting test results.

The paper, written by Professor Warwick McKibbon of the Australian National University, colleague Alexandra Sidorenko and the Washington-based Brookings Institute, urged governments to prepare for a long-overdue epidemic and spend money before disease struck.

Prof McKibbon said yesterday the key points of the paper – including spending, confidence, and the impacts of illness and death on the workforce – still held today, despite the global financial crisis, The New Zealand Herald reported.

"I think those characteristics probably aren't affected very much by the starting point," McKibbon said.

"The good news is that the avian flu did actively push a lot of countries into putting into place response mechanisms and strategies, and you're seeing that in action immediately."

Australia's economy would be hit less severely than New Zealand's, but the death toll would be higher – 2100 in a mild pandemic, or 214,200 at worst.

Globally, 1.4 million people could die in a mild pandemic – or more than 142 million people if the pandemic reaches a scale similar to the 1918-19 Spanish flu.

Economic growth would be hit via markets, employment, industry and trade, while transport and tourism were already bracing for economic gloom.

The World Health Organisation raised the disease's "pandemic alert" two days ago, from phase three (mainly animal infections, few human infections) to phase four (sustained human-to-human transmission).

The next phase, phase five, was pandemic status.

- NZPA