Travellers could swell swine flu numbers

Health experts say a New Zealand cruise ship passenger who has tested positive for Influenza A could herald a flood of infected travellers arriving in the country.

Health officials met the woman's cruise ship, the Pacific Sun, as it docked in Auckland this morning.

The woman and 12 other passengers will be quarantined after stepping off the ship due to concerns she may have swine flu, after testing positive for Influenza A.

The group had been kept separate from the 1700 other passengers.

Auckland Regional Public Health Service clinical director Dr Julia Peters said all those who planned to disembark would be allowed off.

National Influenza Strategy Group spokesman Dr Lance Jennings said this morning it was "inevitable" people would be exposed during visits to Australia, where the number of affected people quadrupled over the weekend and reached 502 confirmed cases yesterday.

Dr Jennings, a virologist, said people who made quick trips to Australia for work may not show symptoms for three to four days after returning.

"In the meantime they've been in contact with a lot of people."

While the number of confirmed cases in New Zealand had been holding steady, this was expected to change as the virus was introduced to communities.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said about 17,563 people had been infected in 64 countries, with 115 deaths.

"In Australia, the number of cases is doubling every two days," Dr Julia Peters, clinical director of the Auckland Regional Public Health Service told the New Zealand Herald.

She echoed Dr Jennings' sentiment it was inevitable New Zealand communities would soon be similarly affected.

"When that happens, because it's more infectious than seasonal influenza, it's going to spread and a large proportion of the community is going to get this virus. Even if it's relatively mild, people will be too sick to go to school."

Dr Peters said that based on WHO modelling up to up 60 percent of people could become infected.

Dr Jennings recommended stocking up on three to five days worth of food and any medicines they required.

Anyone showing symptoms should stay home and contact their doctor by phone, rather than risk infecting others.

The World Health Organisation may move to raise its global swine flu alert to the highest level.

Shaun Drummond, chief operating officer at Capital and Coast District Health Board, said WHO was likely to raise its warning level to 6 an official pandemic today or tomorrow.

Cases of influenza A (H1N1) are still rising across the world, with the virus now spreading outside North America and Mexico, where it is believed to have originated.

Deputy director of public health Darren Hunt would not confirm if WHO would raise its alert level in the next 24 hours, but said it remained "under active review".

A change to level 6 would not necessarily have a major impact in New Zealand, he said.

While New Zealand numbers have remained stable, with just one new confirmed case since May 15, Dr Hunt said the Health Ministry was "watching with concern" the rapid increase in Australian cases.

Confirmed cases there have jumped to 502. The alert in hardest-hit Victoria has been raised to "sustain", meaning containment was not possible, and people thought to have been exposed would no longer be quarantined.

About 2000 cruise ship passengers, sequestered at sea for days after an outbreak of swine flu among crew, were allowed to disembark on Monday in Sydney.

"The sudden increase in ... confirmed cases in our closest neighbour makes it increasingly difficult to keep influenza A (H1N1) out of New Zealand," Dr Hunt said.

Concerned that swine flu awareness is in decline, the ministry will launch an advertising campaign this weekend to warn people the problem has not gone away.

Newspapers, radio and airport posters will remind people to maintain hygiene, contact their doctor if they develop flu-like symptoms after travelling overseas and begin to prepare for a pandemic by storing food, water and medicine.

New Zealand has had only 10 confirmed swine flu cases, none fatal. There are also 10 probable and 51 suspected cases, up from 27 on Tuesday. The jump in suspected cases included people with general flu symptoms, Dr Hunt said.

- By KATHERINE NEWTON, Dominion Post, with NZPA