How prepared is NZ?

The World Health Organisation's declaration of a full-blown swine flu pandemic has raised questions about how New Zealand's 2006 "action plan" will be rolled out.

General practitioners have already said they need ready access to protective masks, gloves and gowns to enable them to treat patients who may arrive at their practices with swine flu.

Because the AH1N1 swine flu virus was new to humans, it was expected to spread more widely than seasonal flu, and with potential for more people to seek medical attention.

Medical Association chairman Peter Foley said some district health boards had released funds to ensure general practices remained fully stocked with supplies.

But this had not yet happened at all district health boards.

Doctors have predicted major challenges in the early stage of the pandemic would be protecting health workers from the virus and educating the public about self-protection.

Though regional medical officers of health will have the power to close borders, restrict public gatherings, put patients in isolation and shut schools and workplaces, the Ministry of Health has said its response to the pandemic will depend on the local situation.

According to Health Minister Tony Ryall, the WHO declaration does not signal a need to significantly change what authorities are doing in New Zealand.

"Our response is based on what is happening here and we are continuing to focus on containment," Mr Ryall said before the WHO announcement.

Last night the number of confirmed cases of swine flu rose to 27, with 10 of them still being treated with Tamiflu in isolation. The rest have recovered. There are another 10 "probable" cases awaiting confirmation.

Ministry of Health chief public health advisor, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, has predicted that as more people test positive for swine flu more workplaces, schools, and childcare centres will be affected.

"Each case can have a large number of contacts," he said,

"Already, this virus is causing significant disruption to the regular routines and lives of those affected."

But Dr Bloomfield said there were real benefits to delaying widespread community transmission of the virus for as long as possible.

Seasonal flu hits up to 20 percent, about 760,000 New Zealanders each year. On average, 2.7 percent of the population (156,000 people) will go to their GP because of flu each year and an estimated 95 people will die.

The progress of both seasonal flu – including AH1N1 viruses which are resistant to Tamiflu – and the separate AH1N1 swine flu, and the potential for the two to mix are being watched closely as there are fears a more virulent form may return to the Northern hemisphere at the end of the year.

Meanwhile the main concern at the moment "is what will happen in the countries of the Southern Hemisphere that are now coming into their winter," Professor Alan Hay of the National Institute for Medical Research in London told the Independent newspaper.

"The real concerns are Australia and particularly Chile, as it is top of the list in terms of number of cases in South America.

Treasury estimates in 2007 of the economic impact in New Zealand of a flu pandemic ranged from a 10 percent drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for an epidemic of a severe form, to a fall-off of between 1 percent and 2 percent for a relatively benign virus.

But acting assistant Treasury Secretary Colin Hall has said those figures have probably been overtaken by the global recession.

- NZPA